Climate change is altering atmospheric and oceanic patterns, significantly impacting cyclogenesis—the formation and development of tropical and extratropical cyclones. In arid and semi-arid regions of South Asia, such as parts of Pakistan, northwest India, and Afghanistan, traditionally not known for frequent cyclonic activity, shifts in temperature, and sea surface warming in adjacent oceans (e.g., Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal). Changes in wind shear are making conditions more conducive to cyclone formation.

Rising sea surface temperatures due to global warming enhance evaporation and provide more energy for storm systems. Increased moisture availability and weakened vertical wind shear can allow cyclones to intensify more rapidly, and in some cases, form in regions that were previously considered unlikely. These changes pose new threats to dryland communities that are poorly equipped to handle such extreme events, raising concerns about infrastructure, water security, and disaster preparedness.
In summary, climate change is expanding the geographic range and intensity of cyclogenesis, increasing the vulnerability of arid and semi-arid regions in South Asia to extreme weather events.